Introduction

In 2025, China’s autonomous delivery vehicle sector will reach a pivotal juncture—not propelled by a surge in capital or isolated technological leaps, but by a sweeping wave of local policy initiatives across the nation. From Fuyang in Anhui to Haidong in Qinghai, Jinan in Shandong to Wuzhou in Guangxi, and Changsha in Hunan to Shenzhen in Guangdong, over 20 provinces and cities have swiftly enacted tailored regulatory frameworks.

By 2026, the industry’s focus will shift from isolated “demonstration projects” in a handful of benchmark cities to a nationwide “scale-up race” and “cost-efficiency trial” spanning hundreds of urban districts.

Let’s explore this with “Autonomous Vehicles Are Here” (WeChat ID: wurenchelaiye)!

(Reference: “Jiangsu Post’s ‘Autonomous Vehicle Fleet’: 214 Rural Routes, 2,838 Vehicles, 48,000 Packages/Hour, Delivering ‘Laba Garlic’ via AI Conveyor Belts.”)

I. Decoding Policy Drivers: Local Governments’ “Strategic Calculus” and Industrial “Positioning”

The policy surge is rooted in deeper motives than mere support for “cutting-edge tech.” It reflects local governments’ pragmatic “strategic calculus.”

First, proactive adaptation to labor market trends.

The express logistics industry is labor-intensive, and demographic shifts alongside rising labor costs are irreversible trends.

Cities in Anhui, Jiangxi, and Guangxi have introduced regulations for “postal express autonomous vehicles,” essentially crafting “automation solutions” for local logistics sectors (including regional hubs for major couriers) to maintain cost competitiveness and operational stability.

On August 14, Nanchang’s postal administration, in collaboration with transport and traffic management departments, issued the first batch of 147 dedicated license plates for express delivery autonomous vehicles to three companies: JiuShi, Neolix, and BaiNiu, as part of implementing the “Nanchang Technical Specifications for Pilot Applications of Postal Express Autonomous Vehicles (Trial).”

(Reference: “Jiangxi Nanchang Issues First Batch of 147 License Plates for Autonomous Delivery Vehicles to JiuShi, Neolix, and BaiNiu! They Stop at Traffic Lights and Make U-Turns at Intersections!”)

This signifies a long-term investment in regional economic vitality.

Second, a paradigm shift in urban governance from “reactive control” to “proactive shaping.”

The traditional “tricycle + courier” model imposes persistent pressures on urban governance in terms of traffic safety, urban aesthetics, and labor compliance.

Autonomous delivery vehicles, as standardized, digitally traceable, and centrally dispatchable logistics units, offer city administrators a novel tool to integrate last-mile logistics into smart city management systems.

Introducing “Administrative Measures” and “Technical Specifications” is akin to pre-installing a more orderly and efficient “new protocol” into urban traffic systems.

(Reference: “Shandong Zibo Fires the First Shot for Autonomous Vehicles on Roads! Will the ‘Barbecue City’ Transform into a Tech Hub? What’s Noteworthy in the ‘Implementation Rules for Road Testing and Commercial Demonstration of Low-Speed Autonomous Driving Vehicles (Trial)?’”)

Ultimately, this is a regional race for new industrial ecosystems.

Against the backdrop of “AI+” as a national strategy, regions that first achieve scale and industrial ecosystems in intelligent connected vehicles—especially autonomous delivery with clear commercial loops—will gain the upper hand in regional economic competition.

Shandong’s ambitious target of “1,500 to 15,000 vehicles” and Anhui’s systematic multi-city rollouts exemplify this fierce “industrial positioning race.”

Policies themselves have become critical tools for attracting investment and catalyzing industrial clusters.

II. From “Pilot Approvals” to “Systemic Operations”: Navigating Regulatory Complexities in 2026

The evolution of policy frameworks indicates that 2026 will bring more intricate and in-depth regulations.

The core challenge will shift from “permission to operate” to “scaling operations efficiently, economically, and safely.”

1. Regulatory Deep Dive: Standard Harmonization and Cross-Jurisdictional Coordination

With over 20 provinces and cities introducing their own “technical specifications,” a new issue emerges:

Divergent standards and non-reciprocal test results could create “digital regional barriers,” burdening enterprises with cross-regional operations.

In 2026, promoting “standard harmonization” and “regulatory data sharing” across provinces and regions will become an urgent priority for both enterprises and governments, potentially fostering regional regulatory alliances.

(Reference: “Shandong Drives Breakthroughs in Autonomous Driving Scenarios, Launches Three Pilot Programs, Targets 15,000+ Low-Speed Autonomous Delivery Vehicles by 2027.”)

2. Operational Transformation: From “Vehicle Suppliers” to “Logistics Service Providers”

Once policies clear the path, enterprises’ core competitiveness will fundamentally shift.

For instance, JiuShi Autonomous Vehicles’ “plug-and-play” and “environment-agnostic” features point the way forward.

The 2026 competition will hinge on “cost per delivery,” “all-weather operational uptime,” “local service network density,” and “integration with existing courier management systems.”

Enterprises that provide stable, reliable, and cost-effective logistics services—rather than merely selling vehicles—will dominate the market.

3. Cost Revolution Threshold: From “Feasible” to “Essential” Business Logic

The economics are straightforward:

When autonomous vehicles reduce per-ticket costs by nearly 30% compared to human labor, large-scale deployment ceases to be an “innovation experiment” and becomes a “cost-driven necessity.”

This will disrupt the express industry’s profit models and pricing structures.

By 2026, autonomous delivery may transition from a “highlight” to a “standard feature” in regions with strong policy support and mature scenarios, fundamentally altering local market competition.

III. 2026 Market Outlook: Market Expansion, Integration, and Value Chain Restructuring

Based on the above, several trends will define the 2026 market:

Trend 1: Market Expansion to Second- and Third-Tier Cities

Policy roadmaps clearly indicate that growth hotspots are shifting from Shenzhen and Beijing to cities like Fuyang, Linyi, and Nanchang in second-, third-, and even fourth-tier regions.

(Reference: “Decoding Shenzhen’s Autonomous Vehicle Policies: Eight Key Insights Reveal Why This ‘First City’ for Functional Autonomous Vehicle Applications Deploys 800 Robots.”)

These areas offer substantial delivery demand, relatively manageable road environments (often less complex than mega-city cores), and stronger policy implementation drive.

Major vehicle deployments and operational network expansions will occur here.

Trend 2: Accelerated Adoption of “Rail-Road Intermodal” and “Depot Sharing” Models

Models like Shenzhen’s “bus depot + autonomous vehicle” integration are highly instructive.

In 2026, deep collaboration with local bus groups, municipal facilities, and other public resources to optimize depots, charging, and maintenance systems will become a key strategy for rapid, low-cost network deployment.

(Reference: “Shenzhen Bus Group Partners with SF Express and Neolix to Launch Operational Entities, Exploring a Nation-Leading ‘Bus + Logistics + Autonomous’ Tri-Chain Integration Model.”)

By serving as the “capillary” link between “dry-line logistics hubs” and “end-users,” autonomous vehicles’ value will be amplified through synergy with existing transportation networks.

Trend 3: Simultaneous Industry Consolidation and Value Chain Restructuring

Consolidation will affect not only courier companies (those embracing automation will gain cost advantages) but also upstream sectors.

Vehicle manufacturers failing to deliver ultra-reliable, low-TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) products will be phased out;

technology providers unable to offer plug-and-play, easy-to-maintain solutions will struggle to survive.

(Reference: “JiuShi Partners with Dongfeng: A Practical Alliance Between a Tech Powerhouse and an Auto Veteran, Unlocking Long-Term Value for L4 Autonomous Driving Across Scenarios.”)

Meanwhile, couriers’ roles will pivot toward complex tasks like exception handling, vehicle maintenance, and customer service in “human-machine collaboration” positions, reshaping career pathways.

IV. Conclusion: A Policy-Led, Commerce-Driven, Operations-Defined Transformation

The 2025 “policy deluge” has laid a clear infrastructure blueprint for China’s last-mile logistics market in 2026 and beyond.

It heralds a new era: the autonomous delivery race now enters a deep-water zone defined by “local government demands,” “real-world business fundamentals,” and “scalability resilience.”

Policies set the stage, but long-term success hinges on delivering “hardcore results” in cost, efficiency, and reliability across China’s diverse urban landscapes.

This transformation will reshape not just logistics but also serve as a mirror reflecting China’s intelligent economic upgrading.

(Reference: “Guangxi Wuzhou to Launch Pilot Operations of Four Low-Speed Logistics Autonomous Vehicles, Handling 30,000 Daily Deliveries!”)

In summary, “Autonomous Vehicles Are Here” (WeChat ID: wurenchelaiye) argues:

The autonomous delivery vehicle industry’s consolidation timeline is clear:

Step 1: Analyze local policies (existing or upcoming) and seize window-of-opportunity periods;

Step 2: Conduct small-scale trials with established suppliers like JiuShi, Neolix, BaiNiu, Meituan, Xingshen Intelligence, and Juwei Technology to refine operational models;

Step 3: Restructure networks for “human-machine collaboration.”

Delay, and the 2026 “autonomous vehicle + low-cost” combination will edge you out. Policies have cleared the path; the market is ablaze. By 2026, autonomous vehicles won’t just test the waters—they’ll engage in decisive competition.

What’s your take?

#AutonomousVehiclesAreHere #AutonomousDriving #SelfDriving #AutonomousVehicles