Introduction

When Weride made history as "China's First Publicly Listed Autonomous Driving Company" and Minieye achieved a market capitalization of HK$6.813 billion on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the market suddenly recognized that the prolonged capital race for RoboBus was finally entering its IPO sprint phase.

Today, two of the top five players in this field have gone public, while Mushroom Auto, UISEE, and QCraft are gearing up for their own debuts. With Pre-IPO funding secured, support from local government funds, and overseas orders in place, all signs point to 2026 as the year when the self-driving bus IPO drama will unfold.

This "slow lane" sector, once overlooked by capital, is now rapidly reshaping its landscape.

Driverless Car Era (WeChat: DriverlessCarEra) invites you to participate in our poll: Among Mushroom Auto, UISEE, and QCraft, who will become the first RoboBus company to go public in 2026?

(For reference, read: "China's Top Five Autonomous Driving Scenarios and Nine Leaders (With Voting): Pony.ai, Weride, Ji Shi, Neolix, Westwell, QCraft, Ike, AutoX, and Aqronos—Who Do You Favor?")

I. Behind the IPO Surge: A Brutal Shift from 'Technology Narrative' to 'Cash Flow Narrative'

The capital narrative surrounding RoboBus underwent a complete transformation in 2024 and 2025.

Initially, investment logic centered around "technological leadership." Companies that developed the most precise perception algorithms or tackled the most extreme scenarios secured funding.

However, after 2025, capital began posing more practical questions: Where does your revenue come from? Are your contracts sustainable? Can your gross margins cover costs?

The successful IPOs of Weride and Minieye stemmed from their ability to articulate a compelling "cash flow story."

Weride pursued a dual strategy of "Robotaxi + Robobus," demonstrating revenue diversity through a relatively asset-light model.

Weride became the world's first publicly listed autonomous driving company after its U.S. IPO in 2024 and the only dual-listed autonomous bus company after its Hong Kong IPO in 2025.

(For reference, read: "Dual Champions Pony.ai and Weride: Data Controversies Before Hong Kong Listing vs. New Partnerships")

Minieye, supported by Foton Motor's ecosystem, took a heavily integrated approach of "vehicle capabilities + operational support."

Despite their differing paths, both companies proved that autonomous buses are not laboratory toys but commercial projects capable of generating real revenue.

On December 27, 2024, Shenzhen Minieye Technology Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 2431.HK) successfully listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at HK$17.00 per share.

(For reference, read: "Minieye Enters Hong Kong Stock Connect: When Autonomous Driving Meets A-Share Investors' Spring")

More telling is the capital market's response to these two companies.

Post-IPO stock performance clearly reflects market sentiment toward this "technology + operations" hybrid model: not overly enthusiastic but substantively recognized (approved).

This indicates investor rationality—no pursuit of miracles, but a demand for clear profitability paths.

II. The Three-Way Race: Mushroom, UISEE, and QCraft's Differentiated Breakthroughs

Behind the two listed companies, three "pre-IPO" contenders are positioning themselves with distinct strategies.

1. Mushroom Auto follows a "technology export + system integration" route.

Its standout achievement is winning Singapore's L4 autonomous bus project in October 2025, marking China's first export of autonomous driving technology as a system solution to overseas public transit.

This project not only brought contractual revenue but also, more critically, endorsement from a high-standard market.

MOGOBUS operates routinely in over 10 Chinese provinces, has safely traveled over 2 million kilometers, served over 200,000 passengers, and completed shuttle missions at events like the World University Summer Games and F1 China Grand Prix, solidifying its technical moat with real-world data.

(For reference, read: "Mushroom Auto: China's Autonomous Driving Benchmark, Operating Nationwide—Leading Global Mobility Revolution with Singapore Export")

2. UISEE focuses on "vision-based technology + commercial vehicle delivery."

It has established stable B2B networks in Xiamen, Chengdu, and other cities.

Unlike Mushroom Auto's grand narrative, UISEE emphasizes deep regional operations, a strategy that, while less vocal, fosters stronger client loyalty and stable revenue.

The company partners with 21 airports globally, serving as the sole provider of sustainable L4 autonomous solutions for large-scale commercial airport operations. Its Hong Kong IPO recently received CSRC approval, placing it at the forefront of IPO readiness.

(For reference, read: "UISEE Clears CSRC Approval for Hong Kong IPO—Serving 21 Global Airports, the Only L4 Airport Solution Provider")

3. QCraft adheres to an "algorithm-driven + platformization" route.

It leverages its technological strengths to expand bus projects in Southern China.

Amid algorithmic homogenization, QCraft seeks differentiation through platform capabilities, offering customized solutions for diverse clients.

The company has deployed nearly a million-unit ADAS systems in passenger vehicles and commercialized L4 Robobus operations in nearly 30 cities, forming a diversified product matrix across "mobility + logistics" and a sustainable business loop. It stands as one of the few firms achieving scaled deployment of both L2+ ADAS and L4 autonomous driving.

(For reference, read: "QCraft Debuts at Saudi Future Mobility Summit—Yu Qian Proves China's Autonomous Driving Isn't Just PPT with Million-Unit Experience")

All three companies have completed Series C+ funding with support from local government funds or industrial capital, providing financial security and valuation foundations for their IPOs.

III. Fundamental Business Model Breakthrough: Why Buses Outpace Taxis in Commercialization

An intriguing phenomenon exists in autonomous driving: the more technically challenging Robobus achieves commercial viability earlier than Robotaxi. This stems from profound business logic differences.

1. Robobus's core advantage lies in scenario controllability.

Fixed routes and relatively closed operational environments (e.g., campuses, airports, dedicated bus lanes) significantly reduce technical complexity. Demonstration projects in Beijing Yizhuang and Shenzhen Qianhai show that autonomous buses can operate 24/7 in designated areas, an efficiency unattainable by human drivers.

Cost structure optimization is another key factor. As domestic hardware alternatives emerge, autonomous driving-related component costs have plummeted. New-generation King Long autonomous buses control material costs under RMB 100,000. Simultaneously, they drastically cut labor costs, crucial amid rising personnel expenses.

More importantly, government-enterprise collaboration models provide stable commercialization support. From Shaoxing's historic district tours to Ordos's urban transit, more local governments integrate autonomous buses into smart city and public transit systems. This "ToG + ToB" hybrid model offers order stability rare for traditional internet startups.

IV. The 2026 Crucible: Dual Tests of IPO Windows and Profitability Milestones

2026 will be a decisive inflection point for the autonomous bus industry. Three critical battles will determine the survivors.

First is the IPO window race. Current capital markets maintain a "cautiously optimistic" stance toward autonomous driving: valuing long-term potential but reserving judgment on short-term profitability. This window won't remain open indefinitely; failure to list soon may lead to harsher financing environments.

Second is the alignment between technical routes and commercial scalability. Capital increasingly demands that technology translates into tangible orders and revenue. Mushroom Auto's Singapore project, UISEE's B2B network, and QCraft's platform capabilities must prove replicability and scalability on a broader scale.

Most critically is profitability clarity. Pony.ai targets profitability by 2028–2029, but its credibility will directly influence market confidence. Investors demand clear profit paths, not endless investment cycles.

V. Future Vision: From 'Vehicle Intelligence' to 'City-Level Networks'

The ultimate competition for autonomous buses lies not in individual vehicle performance but in integration into urban transit systems as smart city infrastructure.

"Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" is transitioning from concept to standard. Mushroom Auto's "smarter vehicles + wiser roads" philosophy represents industry trends. Coordination between roadside units and cloud systems can significantly enhance system reliability and safety.

Data asset value is surging. The over 2 million kilometers Mushroom Auto has traveled generate not just fuel for algorithm optimization but potential core assets. These real-world datasets are irreplaceable for training more robust autonomous systems.

Global expansion capabilities will become a key differentiator. Following Singapore, more overseas markets are opening to Chinese autonomous driving technology. Success in replicating China's proven models abroad will unlock greater growth.

The "IPO surge" of autonomous buses is fundamentally an industry-wide shift from "technology-driven" to "business-driven" growth.

Weride and Minieye merely opened the capital gates; a stronger commercial foundation is needed beyond.

By 2026, we may witness a third or even fourth autonomous bus IPO. But more crucial than going public is proving the industry can generate profits, not just raise funds.

When market bells toll for another company, the question shouldn't be "What's the valuation?" but "Can it sustainably create value?"

In conclusion, Driverless Car Era (WeChat: DriverlessCarEra) believes:

The true winner won't be the fastest to list but the first to find a sustainable business model.

The autonomous bus story is shifting from labs and test tracks to a harsher, more thrilling commercial battleground.

What's your take?

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